'OSCAR'-WATCH: November 2008

Now that various film critics' groups in the US have announced their annual 'Best Films' lists, awards momentum continues. With last week's Golden Globe Awards nominees revealed (plus the Screen Actors Guild nominations show on Thursday), here is my prediction list for November.

(FORMULA: awards/recognitions/critical approbation + audience appeal/recall and box-office reception + awards tradition and film conventions= Oscar potential

BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E (yes! the LAFCC's Best Film of 2008 award is a major traction)

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
David Fincher, The Curious Case...
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Andrew Stanton, WALL-E

BEST ACTOR-LEAD
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino (this is his third shot at an acting nod, and early critical reception is strong)
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

BEST ACTRESS-LEAD
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt (pictured, above with P. S. Hoffman)
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road (could be her sixth nod, and her first win...wishful thinking)

BEST ACTOR-SUPPORTING
Josh Brolin, Milk (despite the nature of his role)
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder (see Brolin)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt (see Downey Jr.)
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight (say no more, period)
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire (despite the category fraud - it's a lead role)

BEST ACTRESS-SUPPORTING
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Debra Winger, Rachel Getting Married

BEST SCREENPLAY (ADAPTATION) (Very competitive category this year, with two acclaimed novels and award winning plays in the mix)
The Curious Case..., Eric Roth (winner in this category for Forrest Gump)and Robin Swicord (director of Memoirs of a Geisha and The Jane Austen Book Club, both middling film adaptation of well-loved books)
Doubt, John Patrick Shanley (1987 Oscar winner for Best Orig. Screenplay, Moonstruck)
The Reader, David Hare (Oscar nominee, The Hours)
Revolutionary Road, Justin Haythe (first time nominee if ever)
Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy (Oscar nominee, The Full Monty)

BEST SCREENPLAY (ORIGINAL)
Gran Torino, Nick Schenk
Milk, Dustin Lance Black
Rachel Getting Married, Jenny (the daughter of director Sidney) Lumet
Vicky Christina Barcelona, Woody Allen (his 15th career nod)
WALL-E, Andrew Stanton, etc. (token animated film nomination every time a Pixar movie is in Oscar contention)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM (unchanged since October)
Revanche, Austria
Gommorah, Italy
The Mermaid, Russia
The Blind Sunflowers, Spain
Maria Larsson's Everlasting Moment, Sweden