R.I.P., THE KING OF POP

I'm lost for words over the sudden death of Michael Jackson, the "King of Pop". Upon learning about it while watching "Unang Hirit" last Friday, I cannot believe that he passed way.

But his legacy will go on. Rock on, M. J.

BREAKING NEWS: OSCAR BEST PICTURE NOMINEES BECOME TEN, NOT FIVE

As per Variety:

There will be 10 best picture nominees starting with the 82nd Oscar ceremony, skedded for March 7, at the Kodak Theater in Hollywood.

The announcement was made Wednesday morning at AMPAS headquarters in BevHills by Acad prez Sid Ganis. Oscar noms will be unveiled Feb. 2.

According to the President, “After more than six decades, the Academy is returning to some of its earlier roots, when a wider field competed for the top award of the year,” said Ganis. “The final outcome, of course, will be the same – one Best Picture winner – but the race to the finish line will feature 10, not just five, great movies from 2009.”

“Having 10 Best Picture nominees is going allow Academy voters to recognize and include some of the fantastic movies that often show up in the other Oscar categories, but have been squeezed out of the race for the top prize,” commented Ganis. “I can’t wait to see what that list of ten looks like when the nominees are announced in February.”

I'm surprised and flabbergasted with the news. Speechless. For now.

RANDOM THOUGHTS: "TO PRAISE OR NOT TO PRAISE"

I'm unsurprised with the talk surrounding the Best Director gong given to Brillante Mendoza for "Kinatay". I have to see the film definitely, but the scorn and buzz that it created among press circles (at Cannes, at least) and web sites (at www.awardsdaily.com, in particular) can only give the movie the buzz it needs to become another international hit (in festivals, at least), just like Mendoza's recent Cannes entry "Serbis".

This is the first major award for a Filipino movie in a prestigious filmfest (not counting Lav Diaz's Horizons Award for Venice last year, since it won in a parallel section, not main competition), and Filipinos should be proud. Criticism is relative; what is good to me may be bad to others (and vice-versa). But then, good buzz or bad buzz is still buzz. I wish the film and direk Dante the best. (I know it would not be his last trip to the Cannes podium.)

"WHITE RIBBON" WINS PALME D'OR; MENDOZA HONORED AS BEST DIRECTOR IN CANNES

(Pictured: directors Michael Haneke, Brillante Mendoza, and Jacques Audiard)

In a year when controversy rang up at Cannes - from films in competition (especially Lars von Trier's massively derided thriller "Antichrist") to the relationship between the members of the jury - at least critical approbation reigned in the bestowal of top two awards.

Michael Haneke's pre-World War I drama "The White Ribbon" and Jacques Audiard's ("The Beat That My Heart Skipped," "A Self-Made Hero") "A Prophet" both received immense positive reviews and, unsurprisingly, top honors in the 62nd edition of the festival.

That's where the good news ends.

Despite the high profile line-up, festival favorites Jane Campion ("Bright Star"), Pedro Almodovar ("Broken Embraces") and Ken Loach ("Looking for Eric") were shunned in favor of critically reviled films - three of them from Asia. Brillante Mendoza was adjudged as Best Director for his "chop-chop lady" picture "Kinatay," while previous Grand Prix honoree Park Chan-wook ("Oldboy") was honored with the Jury Prize (he tied with British filmmaker Andrea Arnold for "Fish Tank") for the vampire drama/thriller "Thirst" and Chinese scripter Feng Mei received the Best Screenplay gong for the love triangle drama "Spring Fever".

Imminent scorn from the press and viewing public greeted the Asian filmmakers upon receiving their awards. Even jury member (and novellist) Hanef Kureishi cannot help but express his opinion regarding the prizes, saying “Sometimes good art is hard... It’s not something I want to see again" (in response to the jury's choice of Best Director).

A "special award" was also bestowed to the festival's much-talked entry, von Trier's "Antichrist". Radu Mihaileanu, a French filmmaker and head of the Ecumenical Jury, handed out an "anti-award" for the film, saying that the film is “the most misogynist movie from the self-proclaimed biggest director in the world.” This is in reference to a statement by the Danish filmmaker at a post-screening news conference.

At least, Best Actress winner Charlotte Gainsbourg have kind words to say about director Lars von Trier (considering her onscreen struggles in the film), pointing out that “I admire his work, I admire everything he did... I know people have different opinions about the film... He’s a great artist.”

Here's the complete list of winners:

Palme d’Or: “The White Ribbon” (Das Weisse Band), directed by Michael Haneke
Grand Prix (runner-up): “A Prophet” (Un Prophete), directed by Jacques Audiard
Prix Exceptional du Jury (Special Jury Prize): Alain Resnais, director of “Wild Grass”
Prix de la Mise en Scene (best director): Brillante Mendoza, director of “Kinatay”
Prix du Scenario (best screenplay): Feng Mei for “Spring Fever” (Chun Feng Chen Zui De Ye Wan), directed by Lou Ye
Camera d’Or (best first feature): “Samson and Delilah,” directed by Warwick Thornton
Special Mention: “Ajami,” directed by Scandar Copti, Yaron Shani
Prix du Jury (jury prize) - TIED: “Fish Tank,” directed by Andrea Arnold and “Thirst,” directed by Park Chan-wook
Prix d’interpretation feminine (best actress): Charlotte Gainsbourg for “Antichrist” (directed by Lars von Trier)
Prix d’interpretation masculine (best actor): Christoph Waltz for “Inglorious Basterds” (directed by Quentin Tarantino)
Palme d’Or (short film): “Arena,” directed by Joao Salaviza

UN CERTAIN REGARD
Prize of Un Certain Regard: “Dogtooth” (Kynodntas), directed by Yorgos Lanthimos
Jury Prize: “Police, Adjective” (Politist, Adjectiv), directed by Corneliu Porumboiu
Special Prize: “No One Knows About Persian Cats” (Kasi Az Gorbehaye Irani Khabar Nadareh), directed by Bahman Ghobadi
“Father of my children” (Le Pere de mes Enfants), directed by Mia Hansen-Love

INTERNATIONAL CRITICS’ WEEK
Grand Prix: “Adieu Gary” by Nassim Amaouche (France)
SACD award: “Lost Persons Area” by Caroline Strubbe (Belgium / Netherlands / Hungary)
ACID/CCAS Support Award: “Sirta La Gal Ba” (Whisper With The Wind) by Shahram Alidi (Iraq)
OFAJ/TV5MONDE (VERY) Young Critic Award: “Sirta La Gal Ba” (Whisper With The Wind) by Shahram Alidi (Iraq)

Short Film Awards
Canal+ Award for Best Short Film: “Slitage” (Seeds of the Fall) de Patrik Eklund (Suede)
Kodak Discovery Award for Best Short Film: “Logorama” by Francois Alaux, Herve de Crecy, Ludovic Houplain (H5)
Other Prizes
Prize Regard Jeune: “Sirta La Gal Ba” (Whisper With The Wind) de Shahram Alidi (Iraq)

DIRECTORS’ FORTNIGHT
Art Cinema Award: “J’ai tue ma mere” (I Killed My Mother) by Xavier Dolan (Canada)
Special Mention: “La Merditude des choses” by Felix van Groeningen (Belgique/Belgium)
7e Prix Regards Jeunes 2009: “J’ai tue ma mere” (I Killed My Mother) by Xavier Dolan (Canada)
SACD Prize: “J’ai tue ma mere” (I Killed My Mother) by Xavier Dolan (Canada)
The Europa Cinemas Label: “La Pivellina” by Tizza Covi and Rainer Frimmel (Autriche/Austria)
French Short films prize: “Montparnasse” (France)

FIPRESCI CRITICS AWARDS
Cannes Competition: “The White Ribbon” (Das Weisse Band), directed by Michael Haneke
Un Certain Regard: “Police, Adjective” (Politist, Adjectiv), directed by Corneliu Porumboiu
Director’s Fortnight/Critics’ Week: “Amreeka”, directed by Cherien Dabis

(Photos courtesy of AFP.)

CANNES 2009: A FESTIVAL OF BIG NAME AUTEURS

... from Tarantino to Ang Lee, Johnnie To to Tsai Ming-liang, Almodovar to Danish enfant terible Lars von Trier.... This is the most high profile line-up in the festival's 62 years so far. Some highlights:

1. Among the 20 filmmakers in contention for the top awards, four have won the Palme d'Or before: Tarantino (Pulp Fiction), Ken Loach (The Wind That Shakes The Barley), Lars von Trier (Dancer in the Dark), and Jane Campion (The Piano).

2. From the big name line-up, three are female directors - Campion, 2006 Jury Prize winner Andrea Arnold (Fish Tank), and Spain's Isabel Coixet (her first time in Cannes' main competition selection).

3. Asia leads a strong main competition selection, with Korea's Park Chan-wook (Thirst), Johnnie To (Vengeance), Tsai Ming-liang (Face), Lou Ye (Spring Fever), and Brillante Mendoza (Kinatay). This is the independent Filipino director's third consecutive appearance in the festival (and his second in the main competition, after last year's widely derided Serbis).

4. Philippine cinema is represented in the fest's three sections: main competition (Kinatay), Un Certain Regard (Raya Martin's French-German co-production Independencia), and Special Screenings (Manila, co-directed by Adolfo Alix Jr. and Raya Martin and starring Piolo Pascual, who also produced). Two short films were also selected to compete for the Palme d'Or: New York based filmmaker Janice Perez's Sabong and Miguel Ocampo's and Aissa Penafiel's Manong Maong. A total of five Filipino films were selected this year, a boon for the country's recent popularity in the world's highly competitive filmfest.

5. This year's Official Selection includes 52 pics and 46 world premieres. They were selected from 1,670 features received from 120 countries.

Isabelle Huppert leads the 2009 festival jury. Awards will be handed out on May 24.

Here's the complete line-up:

OPENER
"Up," U.S., Pete Docter, Bob Peterson

CLOSER
"Coco Chanel & Igor Stravinsky," France, Jan Kounen

IN COMPETITION
"Bright Star," Australia-U.K.-France, Jane Campion
"Spring Fever," China-France, Lou Ye
"Antichrist," Denmark-Sweden-France-Italy, Lars von Trier
"Enter the Void," France, Gaspar Noe
"Face," France-Taiwan-Netherlands-Belgium, Tsai Ming-liang
"Les Herbes folles," France-Italy, Alain Resnais
"In the Beginning," France, Xavier Giannoli
"A Prophet," France, Jacques Audiard
"The White Ribbon," Germany-Austria-France, Michael Haneke
"Vengeance," Hong Kong-France-U.S., Johnnie To
"The Time That Remains," Israel-France-Belgium-Italy, Elia Suleiman
"Vincere," Italy-France, Marco Bellocchio
"Kinatay," Philippines, Brillante Mendoza
"Thirst," South Korea-U.S., Park Chan-wook
"Broken Embraces," Spain, Pedro Almodovar
"Map of the Sounds of Tokyo," Spain, Isabel Coixet
"Fish Tank," U.K.-Netherlands, Andrea Arnold
"Looking for Eric," U.K.-France-Belgium-Italy, Ken Loach
"Inglourious Basterds," U.S., Quentin Tarantino
"Taking Woodstock," U.S., Ang Lee

OUT OF COMPETITION
"The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus," Canada-France, Terry Gilliam
"The Army of Crime," France, Robert Guediguian
"Agora," Spain, Alejandro Amenabar

MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS
"A Town Called Panic," Belgium, Stephane Aubier, Vincent Patar
"Ne te retourne pas," France-Belgium-Luxembourg-Italy, Marina de Van
"Drag Me to Hell," U.S., Sam Raimi

SPECIAL SCREENINGS
"Petition," China, Zhao Liang
"L'epine dans le coeur," France, Michel Gondry
"Min ye," France-Mali, Souleyumane Cisse
"Jaffa," Israel-France-Germany, Keren Yedaya
"Manila," Philippines, Adolfo Alix Jr., Raya Martin
"My Neighbor, My Killer," U.S., Anne Aghion

UN CERTAIN REGARD
"Samson & Delilah," Australia, Warwick Thornton
"Adrift," Brazil, Heitor Dhalia
"The Wind Journeys," Colombia, Ciro Guerra
"Demain des l'aube," France, Denis Dercourt
"Irene," France, Alain Cavalier
"Air Doll," Japan, Hirokazu Kore-eda
"Independance," Philippines-France-Germany, Raya Martin
"Le Pere de mes enfants," France-Germany, Mia Hansen-Love
"Dogtooth," Greece, Yorgos Lanthimos
"Nobody Knows About the Persian Cats," Iran, Bahman Ghobadi
"Eyes Wide Open," Israel, Haim Tabakman
"Mother," South Korea, Bong Joon-ho
"The Silent Army," Netherlands, Jean van de Velde
"To Die Like a Man," Portugal, Joao Pedro Rodrigues
"Police, Adjective," Romania, Corneliu Porumboiu
"Tales from the Golden Age," Romania, Hanno Hofer, Razvan Marculescu, Cristian Mungiu, Constantin Popescu, Ioana Uricaru
"Tale in the Darkness," Russia, Nikolay Khomeriki
"Tzar," Russia-France, Pavel Lounguine
"Nymph," Thailand, Pen-ek Ratanaruang
"Precious," U.S., Lee Daniels

DIRECTORS’ FORTNIGHT LINEUP
“La Pivellina,” Austria, Tizza Covi, Rainer Frimmel
“The Alasness of Things,” Belgium-Netherlands, Felix van Groeningen
“Eastern Plays,” Bulgaria-Sweden, Kamen Kalev
“Carcasses,” Canada, Denis Cote
“J’ai tue ma mere,” Canada, Xavier Dolan
“Polytechnique,” Canada, Denis Villeneuve
“Navidad,” Chile, Sebastian Lelio
“Oxhide II,” China, Liu Jia Yin
“La famille Wolberg,” France-Belgium, Axelle Ropert
“Land of Madness,” France, Luc Moullet
“Le roi de l’evasion,” France, Alain Guiraudie
“Les beaux gosses,” France, Riad Sattouf
“Yuki & Nina,” France-Japan, Nobuhiro Suwa, Hippolyte Girardot
“Ajami,” Israel-Germany, Scandar Copti, Yaron Shani (closer) “Daniel & Ana,” Mexico-Spain, Michel Franco
“Karaoke,” Malaysia, Chan Fui (Chris) Chong
“Ne change rien,” Portugal-France, Pedro Costa
“Here,” Singapore-Canada, Tzu-Nyen Ho
“Like You Know It All,” South Korea, Hong Sang-soo
“Amreeka,” U.S., Cherien Dabis
“Go Get Some Rosemary,” U.S.-France, Benny Safdie, Josh Safdie
“Humpday,” U.S., Lynn Shelton
“I Love You Phillip Morris,” U.S.-France, Glenn Ficarra, John Requa
“Tetro,” Argentina-Spain-Italy, Francis Ford Coppola (opener)

SPECIAL SCREENING
“Montparnasse,” France, Mikhael Hers

SHORT FILMS
“Cicada,” Australia, Amiel Courtin-Wilson
“Jagdfieber,” Belgium, Alessandro Comodin
“Superbarroco,” Brazil, Renata Pinheiro
“Anna,” Denmark, Runar Runarsson
“Nice,” France, Maud Alpi
“The Fugitives,” France, Guillaume Leiter
“Thermidor,” France, Virgil Vernier
“The History of Aviation,” Hungry, Balint Kenyeres
“Song of Love and Health,” Portugal-France, Joao Nicolau
“Dust Kid,” South Korea, Jung Yu-mi
“The Attack of the Robots from Nebuma-5,” Spain, Chema Garcia Ibarra
“Drommar Fran Skogen,” Sweden, Johannes Nyholm
“American Minor,” U.S., Charlie White
“John Wayne Hated Horses,” U.S., Andrew Betzer

First-time filmmakers will be center stage at this year’s 48th annual International Critics Week, where announced competition titles will be up for the Camera d’Or. Critics Week runs May 14-22, 2009. in Cannes. Here’s the critic’s week line-up:

COMPETITION
“Lost Persons Area,” Belgium, Caroline Strubbe
“Altiplano,” Belgium-Germany-Netherlands, Peter Brosen, Jessica Woodworth
“Huacho,” Chile, Alejandro Fernandez Almendras
“Adieu Gary,” France, Nassim Amaouche
“Whisper With the Wind,” Iraq, Shahram Alidi
“The Ordinary People,” Serbia-France-Switzerland, Vladimir Perisic
“Bad Day to Go Fishing,” Uruguay-Spain, Alvaro Brechner

COMPETITION SHORTS
“Runaway,” Canada, Cordell Barker
“Tulum,” Croatia, Dalibor Matanic
“Logorama,” France, H5
“C’est gratuit pour les filles,” France, Claire Burger, Marie Amachoukeli
“Together,” Germany-U.K., Eicke Bettinga
“Noche adentro,” Paraguay, Pablo Lamar
“Seeds of the Fall,” Sweden, Patrick Eklund

SPECIAL SCREENINGS
“Nothing Personal,” France, Mathias Gokalp (Opening film)
“Hierro,” Spain, Gabe Ibanez
“La baie du renard,” France, Gregoire Colin (Closing night short)
“1989,” Columbia, Camilo Matiz (Closing night)

SPECIAL SCREENINGS - SHORTS & MEDIUM-LENGTH
“Elo,” Brazil, Vera Egito
“Espalhadas pelo ar,” Brazil, Vera Egito
“Les Miettes,” France, Pierre Pinaud
“Faiblesses,” France, Nicolas Giraud
“6 Hours,” South Korea, Moon Seong-hyeok

THE 81ST OSCARS: THE REAL WINNERS AND LOSERS

Forget about the "Slumdog" landslide: these are the "real" winners and losers of the 81st Academy Awards@:

THE BEST
1. Heartfelt (Best Sup. Actress winner Penelope) and politically charged (in a good way) (Best Orig. Screenplay winner Dustin Lance Black, "Milk") speeches
2. Surprise Best Foreign Language Film victor "Departures" (the second Asian movie to receive the competitive honor, aside from three honorary awards)
3. Well-deserved wins by Sean Penn (his second), Danny Boyle, and two-time honoree A. H. Rahman (the first Indian composer to score an Oscar)

THE WORST
1. The boring, superficial (most of them), and scripted "tributes" (rather than introduction) of past acting winners to this year's nominees, not to mention their stage presence (very beauty pageant type)
2. The predictable winners (Except for "Departures" which was the biggest upset of the night, and in three years since "Crash" burned "Brokeback Mountain's" Best Picture chances)
3. The pacing of the show (it's like watching a school recognition ceremony wherein the different aspects of filmmaking/education are discussed with the use of visual aids, and in Oscar's case appealing, talented thespians who memorized their lines perfectly, yet some stumbled or bluffed)

PASSABLE...
- Hugh Jackman (Great singing voice and impromptus, but drowned away by the dull pacing and uncomfortable numbers, esp. the Baz Luhrmann-directed musicals in the movies tribute)

Nothing much to talk about, except that nothing has changed with the Oscar show, even the ratings and wooden direction by Bill Condon (of all people).

MY COMPLETE OSCAR WINNER PREDICTION LIST

BEST PICTURE - Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight)
BEST DIRECTOR - Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
BEST ACTOR - Sean Penn, Milk
BEST ACTRESS - Kate Winslet, The Reader
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Viola Davis, Doubt.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - Dustin Lance Black, Milk
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY - Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM - Waltz with Bashir (Israel)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE - WALL-E
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE - Man on Wire
BEST ART DIRECTION - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY - Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
BEST FILM EDITING - Chris Dickens, Slumdog Millionaire
BEST ORIGINAL SONG - “Down to Earth” from WALL-E; Music by Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman, Lyric by Peter Gabriel
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE - A. H. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
BEST COSTUME DESIGN - Michael O'Connor, The Duchess
BEST SOUND MIXING - The Dark Knight, Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo and Ed Novick
BEST SOUND EDITING - WALL-E, Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
BEST MAKE-UP - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

AND FINALLY... BEST PICTURE

THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
PLUSSES: Ambitious big screen adaptation of F. Scott Fitzgerald's short story has attractive and talented leads (Brad Pitt, Cate Blanchett, Tilda Swinton) and impressive technical credits in it; the only $100 million box office grossing Best Picture nominee this year.
MINUSES: The Slumdog fever is unstoppable; destined to win some minor awards, not Best Picture.
PROBABILITY: 3/5

FROST/NIXON
PLUSSES: Well reviewed adaptation of Peter Morgan's Tony Award nominated play gets due points for its strong performances and adroit writing.
MINUSES: The Slumdog fever is unstoppable; disappointing box office; no Nixon movie has won an Oscar before; the performances and writing are its assets, not the film as a whole.
PROBABILITY: 4/5

MILK
PLUSSES: The movie was released at the right time, given the current state of American politics; sentiment for the late California mayor remains in most Academy members; terrific reviews.
MINUSES: The Slumdog fever is unstoppable; anti-gay members and activists are distracting; so-so box office performance
PROBABILITY: 2/5

THE READER
PLUSSES: Holocaust themed pictures are typical Oscar contenders; international cast (Bruno Ganz, Alexandra Maria Lara, David Kross) added to its art-house cred; it's a Weinstein Brothers movie.
MINUSES: It's a Weinstein Brothers movie; the Slumdog fever is unstoppable; mixed reviews; many people say it snagged the slot that is reserved for The Dark Knight.
PROBABILITY: 5/5

SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
PLUSSES: The only film in Oscar history to sweep all guilds' (PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE, ASC, PDGA) and pre-Oscar (Globes, SAG, BAFTA, BFCA) nods, the British film has universal appeal, global scope (India, UK, and US cast and crew), and touching production back story (release delays, budget constraints, mixed reception in India)in it.
MINUSES: None, unless some Academy members become jealous of its countless awards and give the top prize to another movie (which is unlikely).
PROBABILITY: 1/1

THE LOWDOWN: Slumdog Millionaire couldn't have been released at the right time. After three years in contention, Fox Searchlight will have its first Best Picture winner in its hands.

OSCAR-WATCH PREDICTIONS: BEST DIRECTOR

DAVID FINCHER, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
PLUSSES: Contemporary auteur overdue for Oscar recognition; consistently daring and well lensed projects (Zodiac, Fight Club; Panic Room; Seven) with artistic and mainstream appeal
MINUSES: Isn't Danny Boyle; will win in the future
PROBABILITY: 2/5

RON HOWARD, Frost/Nixon
PLUSSES: The former Happy Days star and Beautiful Mind auteur tackles a historical event in American politics and media; the film's thematic urgency is an asset.
MINUSES: Isn't Danny Boyle; Movies about former U.S. President Richard Nixon have never received an Oscar; the film is an achievement in acting and writing, not directing; won Best Director nine years ago.
PROBABILITY: 5/5

GUS VAN SANT, Milk
PLUSSES: The Good Will Hunting helmer has tackled a politically urgent film that wowed critics (if not audiences); established cred and appeal with other filmmakers and art-house literati; the only openly-gay director to be nominated by the Academy twice
MINUSES: Isn't Danny Boyle; uncompromising vision and choice of projects.
PROBABILITY: 3/5

STEPHEN DALDRY, The Reader
PLUSSES: Received his third Best Director nod for his third film; much publicized struggles while making the film are an asset.
MINUSES: Isn't Danny Boyle; the movie has many vocal detractors.
PROBABILITY: 5/5

DANNY BOYLE, Slumdog Millionaire
PLUSSES: After many years of unconventional and art-house films (Shallow Grave; Trainspotting; The Beach; 28 Days), the 53 year old Brit has helmed a touching love story with universal appeal; his DGA win sealed his Oscar chances.
MINUSES: Envy factor (though small); has no projects lined up in the future.

LOWDOWN: It's Danny Boyle, hands-down. No contest.

OSCAR-WATCH PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTRESS

ANNE HATHAWAY, Rachel Getting Married
PLUSSES: Ingenue factor: young actress played against type; Jonathan Demme has a knack for unconventional female characters; won Broadcast Film Critics Award (tied with Meryl Streep).
MINUSES: It's Kate vs. Meryl year; the film was a box office disappointment.
PROBABILITY: 4/5

ANGELINA JOLIE, Changeling
PLUSSES: Change of pace role for the Girl, Interrupted Best Sup. Actress winner; fact-based story has a chilling, emotional complexity (with happy ending); Clint Eastwood directed Hilary Swank to her second Oscar for Million Dollar Baby in 2005.
MINUSES: It's Kate vs. Meryl year; media backlash (Brangelina) could hurt her chances; prickly personality on and off-screen; mixed reviews for her performance; poor box office performance of the film; won Oscar in 2000.
PROBABILITY: 5/5

MELISSA LEO, Frozen River
PLUSSES: Hard-working character actress overdue for Oscar recognition; excellent reviews for her performance; strong support from Academy members (Clint Eastwood, Sean Penn, Josh Brolin, Whoopi Goldberg) and mainstream press (Roger Ebert); the movie has thematic urgency, given the current political and economic climate; women's groups rallied for her and the movie as well.
MINUSES: It's Kate vs. Meryl year; Frozen River is the lowest grossing nominee in this category.
PROBABILITY: 3/5

MERYL STREEP, Doubt.
PLUSSES: "The greatest living actress of all time" received her record setting 15th acting nod for her role as a crusading nun; reviews wise, this is her best chance for a third Oscar; the movie's fourth acting nominations indicate a strong ensemble cast.
MINUSES: Immense support for six-time nominee Kate Winslet; no major nods (Best Picture, Director) for the film; won two Oscars already ("share the wealth" factor); the movie's detractors faulted her studied, unnatural acting compared to Cherry Jones' Tony Award winning performance on Broadway.
PROBABILITY: 2/5

KATE WINSLET, The Reader
PLUSSES: Winslet is the youngest acting nominee with six nods before the age of 33; consistently engaging performances make her overdue for Oscar recognition; Holocaust themed films are Oscar-bait material.
MINUSES: Fine but not great reviews for her performance; her character is unrepentant and repugnant; detractors consider her Golden Globe winning role in Revolutionary Road more emotionally complex and dramatically resonant; the film is a Weinstein Brothers release; category fraud (won Golden Globe and SAG awards for the role); Meryl Streep is overdue for a third Oscar.
PROBABILITY: 1/5

THE LOWDOWN: Call it a battle of benchmark nominees: Winslet is the youngest acting nominee with six nods, while Streep garnered her 15th acting nod; the 33 year old Brit has enough momentum and support from her co-thespians and the media, hence the Oscar should go to... Kate Winslet.

OSCAR-WATCH PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTOR

RICHARD JENKINS, The Visitor
PLUSSES: After many years of consistently engaging performances in films such as North Country, Absolute Power, and Rumor Has It, Jenkins lands a well deserved nod for his affecting portrayal of a graduate school professor in Thomas McCarthy's The Visitor.
MINUSES: If the low budget film was released last November, he may stand a better chance of winning the pre-cursor awards (Golden Globes, SAG, BAFTA). Plus, it's a Sean Penn vs. Mickey Rourke battle.
PROBABILITY: 5/5

FRANK LANGELLA, Frost/Nixon
PLUSSES: Another character actor nominated this year is longtime Academy member Langella who reprised his Tony Award winning role to the big screen.
MINUSES: The film was tepidly received by critics and audiences. Actors who play the disgraced former president don't win Oscars (Anthony Hopkins in 1995, as an example). It's a Penn vs. Rourke showdown in the end.
PROBABILITY: 3/5

SEAN PENN, Milk
PLUSSES: Penn received some of the best reviews of his acting career for his critically praised portrayal of the late openly gay California mayor Harvey Milk. He won the critics' trifecta (LA, NY, National Society) and SAG awards for his performance.
MINUSES: Conservative (and homophobic) voters (Ernest Borgnine, Tony Curtis, to name a few) are a dominant voice in the Academy. He won the award five years ago for Mystic River (spread the wealth factor). Mickey Rourke's career comeback has found immense support from the Globes and BAFTA.
PROBABILITY: 1/5

BRAD PITT, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
PLUSSES: Fine reviews for his role. The film's 13 nominations isn't a fluke either.
MINUSES: Better chances in the technical categories, nothing else. It's a Penn vs. Rourke showdown come Oscar night.
PROBABILITY: 4/5

MICKEY ROURKE, The Wrestler
PLUSSES: Hollywood's biggest comeback story of 2008 is Mickey Rourke. After a self-inflicted career nosedive and obscurity, he hit the spotlight after 15 years for his well received performance in The Wrestler. He won the Golden Globe and BAFTA awards for the role of a lifetime.
MINUSES: Some Academy members may prefer to "wait and see" if he has changed already. (He has to pay his dues after all these years.) The movie's two nods and miniscule box office aren't impressive either. Sentiment for Sean Penn and the film have greater weight.
PROBABILITY: 2/5

THE LOWDOWN: It's a battle between the former bratpacks. Penn has the right political timing for his role as Harvey Milk, while Rourke's career comeback was one of 2008's entertainment highlights. Performance wise, both were great. Since most Academy members vote with their hearts and not with their minds, Penn has greater impact.

OSCAR-WATCH PREDICTIONS: BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

THE BAADER MEINHOF COMPLEX, Germany
- Controversy surrounding the characters in this fact-based post-Holocaust drama is in litigation now, and Germany won the award two years ago.
PROBABILITY: 5/5

THE CLASS, France (pictured)
- This is France's 34th Best Foreign Film nod, and in a year of true-to-life films 2008's Palme d'Or winner has strong appeal with traditional Academy voters.
PROBABILITY: 2/5

DEPARTURES, Japan
- No Japanese film has won the award since its inauguration as a competitive category in 1956.
PROBABILITY: 3/5

REVANCHE, Austria
- Austria won the award last year for The Counterfeiters, a well received film than this love on the run drama.
PROBABILITY: 4/5

WALTZ WITH BASHIR, Israel
- Ari Folman's partly autobiographical debut feature went home empty handed at Cannes last year, but it emerged victorious Stateside (winning numerous awards including the Golden Globe, WGA, and National Society for Film Critics for Best Film). Its cinematic roots (animated docu-drama) may prove too confusing for old fashioned voters.
PROBABILITY: 1/5


THE LOWDOWN: Sony Pictures Classics is busy campaigning for The Class and Bashir, but only one will win. France should find itself a winner though.

OSCAR-WATCH PREDICTIONS: BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON, Screenplay by Eric Roth, Screen story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
- This is Roth's third Oscar nomination, though the film may fare better in the technical categories. The Slumdog train may derail his chances.
PROBABILITY: 2/5

DOUBT, Written by John Patrick Shanley
- Shanley won the Best Original Screenplay Oscar for Moonstruck in 1988 and the Tony Award for Best Play in 2006. The film received mixed critical traction, and its performances were far better received than his writing. Plus, the Slumdog train may derail his chances.
PROBABILITY: 4/5

FROST/NIXON, Screenplay by Peter Morgan
- Just like Shanley, Morgan adapted his Tony winning play for the screen with divisive results. Plus, the Slumdog train may derail his chances.
PROBABILITY: 3/5

THE READER, Screenplay by David Hare
- Hare had a better chance of winning six years ago for The Hours and not for this Weinstein Brothers production. Plus, the Slumdog train may derail his chances.
PROBABILITY: 5/5

SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy (pictured)
- 2008 is Slumdog's year, and the Full Monty (1997) nominee is assured of a ticket to the podium.
PROBABILITY: 1/5

THE LOWDOWN: Beaufoy swept most of the Best Screenplay awards (including the WGA for Adapted Writing) this year, and the Slumdog fever isn't resting on its laurels.

OSCAR-WATCH PREDICTIONS: BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

FROZEN RIVER, Written by Courtney Hunt (pictured, right)
- Melissa Leo's widely praised performance was the center of the film and not her debut screenplay.
PROBABILITY: 2/5

HAPPY-GO-LUCKY, Written by Mike Leigh
- The lack of love for four-time nominee Leigh's critically acclaimed film was obvious with Sally Hawkins' surprise snub from the Academy and BAFTA. This is the movie's sole nomination, and its own reward.
PROBABILITY: 4/5

IN BRUGES, Written by Martin McDonagh
- The Belgium-set Irish tragicomedy surprisingly scored a Best Screenplay nod despite its March 2008 release, so its nomination is enough.
PROBABILITY: 5/5

MILK, Written by Dustin Lance Black
- This is Black's first produced screenplay and the category's sole Best Picture nominee. After winning the WGA last month, will Oscar be next? Common sense says he will (and deserves it).
PROBABILITY: 1/5

WALL-E, Screenplay by Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Original story by Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter
- Pixar films are a staple in this category every year, and WALL-E is no exception. This is Stanton's second nomination as a writer, though animated films stand no chance of winning the Best Screenplay award.
PROBABILITY: 3/5

THE LOWDOWN: Milk may repeat its WGA win on March 22, though WALL-E and Frozen River have its ardent supporters.

10th OSCAR-WATCH PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Aside from Best Foreign Language Film and Best Original Screenplay, this year's Best Sup. Actress race is unpredictable. Take a look at my predictions and stats:

AMY ADAMS, DOUBT
PLUSSES: Fine performance in an ensemble film; previously nominated for 2005's Junebug (same category); newly minted Academy member has a good reputation in Hollywood for her vivacity, graciousness, and talent.
MINUSES: Viola Davis' performance was more lauded than hers; lacked "big emotional" scene to put her on top
PROBABILITY: 4/5


PENELOPE CRUZ, VICKY CHRISTINA BARCELONA
PLUSSES: Critically acclaimed performance that won her a BAFTA two weeks ago over Viola Davis and Amy Adams; actresses in Woody Allen films are an Oscar favorite
MINUSES: The "killer" role; the movie was surprisingly snubbed by the Academy in other categories
PROBABILITY: 3/5


VIOLA DAVIS, DOUBT.
PLUSSES: In a year wherein hard working character actors and actresses are honored, hers stole the spotlight; being praised by the "greatest living actress of all time" Meryl Streep last month at the Screen Actors Guild Awards is a big deal of class and traction for her widely praised performance.
MINUSES: Internal competition from Cruz and Henson
PROBABILITY: 1/5


TARAJI P. HENSON, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
PLUSSES: Well received performance in the biggest nominated film of the year
MINUSES: Davis packed more emotional punch and media attention, while Cruz has the powerful Weinstein Brothers behind her; Button has better chances in technical categories
PROBABILITY: 2/5


MARISA TOMEI, THE WRESTLER
PLUSSES: The category's only previous winner (1992's My Cousin Vinny) received some of the best reviews of her career for her performance in the movie; holding her own against Best Actor nominee and 2008's comeback story Mickey Rourke isn't much of a stretch either.
MINUSES: Won an Oscar before (spread the wealth); Rourke stole the spotlight from her; internal competition.
PROBABILITY: 5/5


PREDICTIONS: It's a three-way race: Davis has the actors' branch to back her up, while Cruz has the Weinstein Brothers and critics to support her, and Henson as the long-shot.

10th OSCAR-WATCH PREDICTIONS

2009 marks the tenth year of Reel Reviews' Annual Oscar-Watch Predictions Game. Though the grand slam guilds' performance of Slumdog Millionaire make it the "only" sure thing for multiple Oscars (including Best Picture), the primary objective is to assess the probability of a film, performance, or technical aspect/detail to win an Academy Award.

Today, I will discuss the Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress predictions. (These are the two major awards that are announced earlier in the telecast.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

JOSH BROLIN, MILK
PLUSSES: Performance was acclaimed; he is a new Academy member; retribution for being snubbed last year for his career comeback in the four-time winning "No Country for Old Men"
MINUSES: Competition from Heath Ledger; unsympathetic role; "Milk" spotlight focused on Sean Penn and the movie, not on him.
PROBABILITY: 3/5


ROBERT DOWNEY, JR., TROPIC THUNDER
PLUSSES: Career comeback for the 1993 Best Actor nominee and former Hollywood wild child (drug addict); starring in 2008's third highest grossing film "Iron Man" do not hurt either.
MINUSES: Isn't Heath Ledger; Controversial nature of the role was brutally savaged by many critics; the Ben Stiller-directed film was a relative box office disappointment
PROBABILITY: 5/5


PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN, DOUBT.
PLUSSES: Well received performance of a controversial role (played on stage by Tony Award nominee Brian F. O'Byrne)
MINUSES: Isn't Heath Ledger; won Best Actor Oscar for "Capote" three years ago (spread the wealth); the movie was a relative box office and critical disappointment; Meryl Streep and Viola Davis gained more press traction than him
PROBABILITY: 5/5


HEATH LEDGER, THE DARK KNIGHT
PLUSSES: The "killer" role that put his performance on the map; the film was a critical and box office success (second highest grossing movie of all time); 1976 posthumous Best Actor winner Peter Finch ("Network") proved that dead actors can win an Oscar too.
MINUSES: He's dead already, so what is he to gain?
PROBABILITY: 1/5


MICHAEL SHANNON, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
PLUSSES: Hard working character actor was honored for a well received performance
MINUSES: Heath Ledger; the film is a critical and box office disappointment; minimal screen time
PROBABILITY: 2/5


PREDICTION: Heath Ledger's family should prepare a speech just in case his name is called, though Michael Shannon might score a huge upset. Ouch!

"SLUMDOG" WINS SEVEN BAFTAs; KATE, MICKEY, PENELOPE HONORED

BEST PICTURE: Slumdog Millionaire, Christian Colson, producer
BEST DIRECTOR: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
BEST ACTRESS: Kate Winslet, The Reader
BEST ACTOR: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
BRITISH FILM: Man on Wire
ANIMATED FILM: WALL•E
CARL FOREMAN AWARD: Steve McQueen, Hunger
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE: I’ve Loved You So Long
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Martin McDonagh, In Bruges
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
VISUAL EFFECTS: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
MAKEUP and HAIR: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
PRODUCTION DESIGN: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
SCORE: A. R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
SOUND: Slumdog Millionaire
EDITING: Slumdog Millionaire
COSTUMES: The Duchess
RISING STAR: Noel Clarke
SHORT ANIMATION: Wallace & Gromit: A Matter of Loaf and Death
ACADEMY FELLOWSHIP: Terry Gilliam

"SLUMDOG" WINS SAG ENSEMBLE AWARD

... If ever "Slumdog" didn't win it, what film will it be?

BEST MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE - Sean Penn, Milk(first SAG award)
BEST FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE - Meryl Streep, Doubt. (first SAG; she predictably won it since frontrunner Kate Winslet was nominated-and ultimately won-the Best Sup. Actress award for The Reader)
BEST MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE - Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
BEST FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE - Kate Winslet, The Reader (oh well...)
BEST ENSEMBLE CAST OF A THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURE - Slumdog Millionaire

GUILDS ROUND-UP: 'SLUMDOG' TAKES IT LIKE A "WALK IN THE PARK"

DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA (DGA)

OUTSTANDING DIRECTORIAL ACHIEVEMENT IN MOTION PICTURES - Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire


PRODUCERS GUILD OF AMERICA (PGA)
The Darryl F. Zanuck Producer of the Year Award in Theatrical Motion Pictures
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, Christian Colson

The Producers Guild of America Producer of the Year Award in Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures
MAN ON WIRE, Simon Chinn

The Producers Guild of America Producer of the Year Award in Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
WALL-E, Jim Morris


WGA Winners (SCREEN WINNERS)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Milk, Written by Dustin Lance Black, Focus Features

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Slumdog Millionaire, Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy, Based on the Novel Q and A by Vikas Swarup, Fox Searchlight Pictures

DOCUMENTARY SCREENPLAY
Waltz with Bashir, Written by Ari Folman, Sony Pictures Classics


AMERICAN CINEMA EDITORS (ACE) EDDIE AWARDS WINNERS

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM - Slumdog Millionaire, Chris Dickens
BEST EDITED ANIMATED FEATURE - WALL-E, Stephen Schaffer
BEST EDITED DOCUMENTARY FEATURE - Man On Wire, Jinx Godfrey


AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CINEMATOGRAPHERS (ASC)
WINNER: Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
(Mantle previously worked with Lars von Trier in Dogville and Manderlay)

NOMINEES:
Roger Deakins, Revolutionary Road
Roger Deakins & Chris Menges, The Reader (Oscar nominee)
Claudio Miranda, Benjamin Button (Oscar nominee)
Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight (Oscar nominee)

Changeling's Tom Stern is in contention for the Oscar on Feb. 22, though he was snubbed by the ASC.

OSCAR NOMINATIONS: THE AFTERSHOCK

It's been three weeks since the 81st Academy Awards nominations were announced, and I'm reeling from the mostly unexpected-and ultimately boring-contenders (esp. Slumdog Millionaire - that's you!). Here are this year's highlights and low points:

HIGHLIGHTS
1. Trio of character actors and actress were justly rewarded (Richard Jenkins-pictured, right, Melissa Leo, Michael Shannon)
2. Deserved love (and 7 nods) for critical favorite (but box office underperformer) Milk (including Josh Brolin)
3. Departures, the only Asian film to be shortlisted in the Best Foreign Film category this year
4. Best Orig. Screenplay nominee Courtney Hunt, for her familiar story but nonetheless searing and well acted indie film Frozen River 5. Best Orig. Screenplay contender Martin McDonaugh, for his tragicomedy In Bruges

LOW POINTS
1. "Brangelina" fever (pictured, left) hits the red carpet (the couple enters the Oscar record for being nominated in the same year, though undeservedly so)
2. No Happy-Go-Lucky trip for Sally Hawkins to the podium... well, almost (Mike Leigh will surely not attend the ceremony despite receiving his fourth Best Orig. Screenplay nom)
3. Kate Winslet (for her heartfelt performance in Revolutionary Road)
4. No intriguing original song nominees, not even for past winner and this year's Golden Globe honoree Bruce Springsteen (The Wrestler)
5. Slumdog Millionaire (I just can't share the love for his overrated film...)

THE 81ST ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS NOMINATIONS

Performance by an actor in a leading role
* Richard Jenkins in “The Visitor” (Overture Films)
* Frank Langella in “Frost/Nixon” (Universal)
* Sean Penn in “Milk” (Focus Features)
* Brad Pitt in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
* Mickey Rourke in “The Wrestler” (Fox Searchlight)

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
* Josh Brolin in “Milk” (Focus Features)
* Robert Downey Jr. in “Tropic Thunder” (DreamWorks, Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
* Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Doubt” (Miramax)
* Heath Ledger in “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.)
* Michael Shannon in “Revolutionary Road” (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage)

Performance by an actress in a leading role
* Anne Hathaway in “Rachel Getting Married” (Sony Pictures Classics)
* Angelina Jolie in “Changeling” (Universal)
* Melissa Leo in “Frozen River” (Sony Pictures Classics)
* Meryl Streep in “Doubt” (Miramax)
* Kate Winslet in “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company)

Performance by an actress in a supporting role
* Amy Adams in “Doubt” (Miramax)
* Penélope Cruz in “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” (The Weinstein Company)
* Viola Davis in “Doubt” (Miramax)
* Taraji P. Henson in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
* Marisa Tomei in “The Wrestler” (Fox Searchlight)

Best animated feature film of the year
* “Bolt” (Walt Disney), Chris Williams and Byron Howard
* “Kung Fu Panda” (DreamWorks Animation, Distributed by Paramount), John Stevenson and Mark Osborne
* “WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Andrew Stanton

Achievement in art direction
* “Changeling” (Universal), Art Direction: James J. Murakami, Set Decoration: Gary Fettis
* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Art Direction: Donald Graham Burt, Set Decoration: Victor J. Zolfo
* “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), Art Direction: Nathan Crowley, Set Decoration: Peter Lando
* “The Duchess” (Paramount Vantage, Pathé and BBC Films), Art Direction: Michael Carlin, Set Decoration: Rebecca Alleway
* “Revolutionary Road” (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage), Art Direction: Kristi Zea, Set Decoration: Debra Schutt

Achievement in cinematography
* “Changeling” (Universal), Tom Stern
* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Claudio Miranda
* “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), Wally Pfister
* “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company), Chris Menges and Roger Deakins
* “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Anthony Dod Mantle

Achievement in costume design
* “Australia” (20th Century Fox), Catherine Martin
* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Jacqueline West
* “The Duchess” (Paramount Vantage, Pathé and BBC Films), Michael O’Connor
* “Milk” (Focus Features), Danny Glicker
* “Revolutionary Road” (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage), Albert Wolsky

Achievement in directing
* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), David Fincher
* “Frost/Nixon” (Universal), Ron Howard
* “Milk” (Focus Features), Gus Van Sant
* “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company), Stephen Daldry
* “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Danny Boyle

Best documentary feature
* “The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)” (Cinema Guild), A Pandinlao Films Production, Ellen Kuras and Thavisouk Phrasavath
* “Encounters at the End of the World” (THINKFilm and Image Entertainment), A Creative Differences Production, Werner Herzog and Henry Kaiser
* “The Garden” A Black Valley Films Production, Scott Hamilton Kennedy
* “Man on Wire” (Magnolia Pictures), A Wall to Wall Production, James Marsh and Simon Chinn
* “Trouble the Water” (Zeitgeist Films), An Elsewhere Films Production, Tia Lessin and Carl Deal

Best documentary short subject
* “The Conscience of Nhem En” A Farallon Films Production, Steven Okazaki
* “The Final Inch” A Vermilion Films Production, Irene Taylor Brodsky and Tom Grant
* “Smile Pinki” A Principe Production, Megan Mylan
* “The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306” A Rock Paper Scissors Production, Adam Pertofsky and Margaret Hyde

Achievement in film editing
* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
* “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), Lee Smith
* “Frost/Nixon” (Universal), Mike Hill and Dan Hanley
* “Milk” (Focus Features), Elliot Graham
* “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Chris Dickens

Best foreign language film of the year
* “The Baader Meinhof Complex” A Constantin Film Production, Germany
* “The Class” (Sony Pictures Classics), A Haut et Court Production, France
* “Departures” (Regent Releasing), A Departures Film Partners Production, Japan
* “Revanche” (Janus Films), A Prisma Film/Fernseh Production, Austria
* “Waltz with Bashir” (Sony Pictures Classics), A Bridgit Folman Film Gang Production, Israel

Achievement in makeup
* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Greg Cannom
* “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), John Caglione, Jr. and Conor O’Sullivan
* “Hellboy II: The Golden Army” (Universal), Mike Elizalde and Thom Floutz

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.),Alexandre Desplat
* “Defiance” (Paramount Vantage), James Newton Howard
* “Milk” (Focus Features), Danny Elfman
* “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), A.R. Rahman
* “WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Thomas Newman

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
* “Down to Earth” from “WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Music by Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman, Lyric by Peter Gabriel
* “Jai Ho” from “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Music by A.R. Rahman, Lyric by Gulzar
* “O Saya” from “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Music and Lyric by A.R. Rahman and Maya Arulpragasam

Best motion picture of the year
* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), A Kennedy/Marshall Production, Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall and Ceán Chaffin, Producers
* “Frost/Nixon” (Universal), A Universal Pictures, Imagine Entertainment and Working Title Production,Brian Grazer, Ron Howard and Eric Fellner, Producers
* “Milk” (Focus Features), A Groundswell and Jinks/Cohen Company Production, Dan Jinks and Bruce Cohen, Producers
* “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company), A Mirage Enterprises and Neunte Babelsberg Film GmbH Production, Nominees to be determined
* “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), A Celador Films Production, Christian Colson, Producer

Best animated short film
* “La Maison en Petits Cubes” A Robot Communications Production, Kunio Kato
* “Lavatory - Lovestory” A Melnitsa Animation Studio and CTB Film Company Production, Konstantin Bronzit
* “Oktapodi” (Talantis Films) A Gobelins, L’école de l’image Production, Emud Mokhberi and Thierry Marchand
* “Presto” (Walt Disney) A Pixar Animation Studios Production, Doug Sweetland
* “This Way Up”, A Nexus Production, Alan Smith and Adam Foulkes

Best live action short film
* “Auf der Strecke (On the Line)” (Hamburg Shortfilmagency), An Academy of Media Arts Cologne Production, Reto Caffi
* “Manon on the Asphalt” (La Luna Productions), A La Luna Production, Elizabeth Marre and Olivier Pont
* “New Boy” (Network Ireland Television), A Zanzibar Films Production, Steph Green and Tamara Anghie
* “The Pig” An M & M Production, Tivi Magnusson and Dorte Høgh
* “Spielzeugland (Toyland)” A Mephisto Film Production, Jochen Alexander Freydank

Achievement in sound editing
* “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), Richard King
* “Iron Man” (Paramount and Marvel Entertainment), Frank Eulner and Christopher Boyes
* “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Tom Sayers
* “WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood
* “Wanted” (Universal), Wylie Stateman

Achievement in sound mixing
* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Mark Weingarten
* “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo and Ed Novick
* “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke and Resul Pookutty
* “WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Tom Myers, Michael Semanick and Ben Burtt
* “Wanted” (Universal), Chris Jenkins, Frank A. Montaño and Petr Forejt

Achievement in visual effects
* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton and Craig Barron
* “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Tim Webber and Paul Franklin
* “Iron Man” (Paramount and Marvel Entertainment), John Nelson, Ben Snow, Dan Sudick and Shane Mahan

Adapted screenplay
* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Screenplay by Eric Roth, Screen story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
* “Doubt” (Miramax), Written by John Patrick Shanley
* “Frost/Nixon” (Universal), Screenplay by Peter Morgan
* “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company), Screenplay by David Hare
* “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy

Original screenplay
* “Frozen River” (Sony Pictures Classics), Written by Courtney Hunt
* “Happy-Go-Lucky” (Miramax), Written by Mike Leigh
* “In Bruges” (Focus Features), Written by Martin McDonagh
* “Milk” (Focus Features), Written by Dustin Lance Black
* “WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Screenplay by Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Original story by Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter

'OSCAR' COUNTDOWN: BEST DIRECTOR

2008 can be said as a relatively weak year during the awards season. Everywhere you went, same pictures (Slumdog Millionaire; WALL-E; Dark Knight), directors (Chris Nolan, Danny Boyle, David Fincher-pictured), actors, actresses, writers, and technical team can be heard or read during awards' ceremony. Even the countless blogs and film cognoscenti do this too, which obviously shows that critical and popular consensus for films in contention are limited to the pictures that are honored. Those "little" films are thrown away in the sidelines, waiting to be discovered as an "out of left field" choice.

The U.S. critics' choices for best director were divided between Nolan, Mike Leigh (Happy-Go-Lucky), and Boyle. High profile pictures Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, and The Wrestler have catapulted Fincher, Ron Howard, Gus Van Sant, and Darren Aronofsky into the mix. Clint Eastwood's Angelina Jolie vehicle Changeling could have been a major contender if the film was a critical and box office hit , while his supposed-to-be last movie as an actor, Gran Torino racked up impressive ticket sales ($70 million in two weeks and counting) and decent reviews; Eastwood's recent projects (Mystic River; Million Dollar Baby; Letters from Iwo Jima) were recognized by the Academy, and Torino is considered a frontrunner. Sam Mendes (Revolutionary Road) and Stephen Daldry (The Reader) were overshadowed by their movies' limited popular appeal, while WALL-E's Andrew Stanton may become the first best director to be nominated for an animated feature.

Here are my predictions for Best Director:

David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

'OSCAR' COUNTDOWN: BEST SCREENPLAY

For Best Original Screenplay the nominees are...

Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Woody Allen, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Andrew Stanton, WALL-E
Robert Siegel, The Wrestler

For Best Adapted Screenplay the nominees are...

Eric Roth, for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Screen Story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord, based on the short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald

John Patrick Shanley, for Doubt, based on his stage play

Peter Morgan, for Frost/Nixon, based on his stage play

David Hare, for The Reader, based on the novel by Bernard Schlink (pictured, above)

Simon Beaufoy, for Slumdog Millionaire, based on the novel Q and A by Vikas Swarup

'OSCAR' COUNTDOWN: BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Last week's announcement of the top nine shortlist yielded a lot of surprises, both good (Nuri Bilge Ceylan's Cannes winning 3 Monkeys; Gotz Spielmann's explicit revenge drama Revanche) and bad (Cannes and multi-award winning Italian mafia film Gomorra was snubbed, as did Sundance Filmfest contenders Captain Abu-Raed and Russia's The Mermaid). As always, the most prickly branch of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences preferred their usual tastes: family generational dramas set in Latin America (Mexican telenovela-like Tear This Heart Out), Europe and Scandinavia (two time nominee Jan Troell's Everlasting Moments); domestic strife and reconciliation (Japan's Departures); old man and his young friend's reflection on life (Canada's The Necessities of Life); and the coming of age story (Cannes' Palme d'Or winner The Class).

Israel's highly acclaimed animated feature-cum-documentary Waltz with Bashir is considered a front runner, though it was surprising that it made the cut in this category. The movie is in the running for Best Animated Feature.) Sony Pictures Classics, its North American distributor knows how to handle foreign language releases especially during the awards season, and Bashir's highly favorable critical traction in the U.S. assure writer-director Ari Folman and his wife a seat at the Kodak Theater come February 22. Hence, it's in.

Here are my predicted nominees in the category:

The Class, France; Laurent Cantet, director (first picture, above)
Everlasting Moments, Sweden; Jan Troell, director
Revanche, Austria; Gotz Spielmann, director (second picture)
3 Monkeys, Turkey; Nuri Bilge Ceylan, director (The first Turkish film to be nominated in this category.)
Waltz with Bashir, Israel; Ari Folman, director

'OSCAR-WATCH': BEST ACTRESS in a supporting role

This year's Best Sup. Actress category isn't as crowded as last year's. It would be easy to make my predictions:

AMY ADAMS, Doubt. (left, with Meryl Streep)
- Well loved by the press for her graciousness on and off screen, the Academy member gave a fine performance in John Patrick Shanley's adaptation of his acclaimed play. But the critics preferred her co-star Viola Davis.

PENELOPE CRUZ, Vicky Christina Barcelona
- Woody Allen received his 15th WGA nod for his script, and Cruz's performance was immensely praised. If last year's Best Sup. Actor winner (and her current love interest) Javier Bardem presents the Oscar for this category, will he gonna declare her as the winner? Hmmm...

VIOLA DAVIS, Doubt.

MARISA TOMEI, The Wrestler
- Never underestimate the Academy love for this 1992 Best Sup. Actress winner (and 2001 nominee). The love for the movie will carry her over to the Kodak Theater as a nominee.

KATE WINSLET, The Reader
- The film's producers the Weinstein Brothers are busy campaigning for Cruz in this category, because apparently Winslet was displeased with the same release schedule for her other 2008 movie. If she wins for this film (which is likely), will she receive the Best Lead Actress award? (Impossible.)

BETTER LUCK NEXT TIME TO...

Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Taraji P. Henson, Benjamin Button
Tilda Swinton, Benjamin Button
Elsa Zylberstein, Il y a longtemps que je t'aime

'OSCAR'-WATCH: BEST ACTOR in a supporting role

For Best Actor in a Supporting Role, the nominees are...

JOSH BROLIN, Milk
- Retribution: after being snubbed last year for his career defining role in the Oscar winning No Country for Old Men, Barbra Streisand's stepson gained critical appraisal for his performance in the Harvey Milk biopic. He is my bet for the SAG on Jan. 25.

ROBERT DOWNEY, JR., Tropic Thunder (left, with Jack Black)
- His role as Kirk Lazarus (mentally challenged actor with references to Russell Crowe) may have been controversial, but the execution was praised. Along with the well reviewed summer blockbuster Iron Man, 2008 has proven to be Downey Jr's year.

PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN, Doubt.
- No doubt about Doubt, this year's acting showcase and multi-nominated movie without a Best Picture nod.

HEATH LEDGER, The Dark Knight
- The late young actor sealed the deal for his widely acclaimed role as The Joker, but the question is "will he be the second recipient of a posthumous Oscar after 1976's Peter Finch?"

DEV PATEL, Slumdog Millionaire
- This year's other category fraud nominee (along with Kate Winslet), the Indian-British actor actually played a lead character in this overrated movie. I don't see an Oscar win for him though.

And the Oscar snubs...

David Cross, The Reader
Ralph Fiennes, The Duchess
James Franco, Milk (He had a banner year in 2008 like Downey Jr., after starring in the late summer hit Pineapple Express.)
John Malkovich, Burn After Reading or Changeling
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road (Much talked about performance in the film aside from Winslet)

'OSCAR'-WATCH: BEST ACTRESS in a leading role

Certainly the year's much awaited race (along with Best Actor), 2008 has produced several career defining and acclaimed performances for actresses in a leading role. Major U.S. critics' groups (New York, L.A., National Society) and the Golden Globes have declared Sally Hawkins as the one to beat (though her hometown counterpart, the BAFTA, snubbed her and the film as a whole). BAFTA contender Kristin Scott-Thomas (left) may have received immense critical approbation for her work in the French drama Il y a longtemps que je t'aime (I've Loved You So Long), but the film was a limited release flop. Cate Blanchett's role in Benjamin Button was surprisingly overlooked by the attention given to Brad Pitt, Taraji Henson, and the film as a whole. And while Changeling's Angelina Jolie was nominated by the Globes and SAG, the film was a critical and box office turn off.

For the Best Actress in a leading role, the nominees are...

ANNE HATHAWAY, Rachel Getting Married
- Young actress in a well reviewed performance is a change of pace role. Oscar might be next.

SALLY HAWKINS, Happy-Go-Lucky
- Her mumbling speech at the Globes was a turn-off, but the performance was widely acclaimed. (And the film's writer director, Mike Leigh is well loved by the Academy.)

KRISTIN SCOTT-THOMAS, Il Y A Longtemps Que Je T'Aime

MERYL STREEP, Doubt.
- This is divine Streep's 15th Oscar nomination. Will she receive her third statuette for the role? Early bird soothsayers say it's another Oscar favorite's year, who happens to be...

KATE WINSLET, Revolutionary Road
- The 32 year old actress and five time nominee (an Academy record) is up for her fourth lead actress nod. Given her impressive film credentials, popularity with some Academy members (including Emma Thompson and Oprah Winfrey), and fine notices for her performance in the otherwise divisive movie (including a Best Actress-Drama Golden Globe last week), common sense says it's in the bag for her. The only problem will be if Winslet wins Best Sup. Actress for The Reader, will she receive the lead actress award?

In a less crowded year, the nominees will be...

REBECCA HALL, Vicky Christina Barcelona
MELISSA LEO, Frozen River (The critics awards she needed went to Hawkins, while the guilds preferred Winslet.)
MERYL STREEP, Mamma Mia! (Really?)
EMMA THOMPSON, Last Chance Harvey (Her interviews and appearances in numerous functions such as the Golden Globes are needed for the love-for-the-50s crowd romantic drama.)
MICHELLE WILLIAMS, Wendy and Lucy (I have high hopes for her affecting performance in this indie film.)