Saturday, February 21, 2009

OSCAR-WATCH PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTRESS










ANNE HATHAWAY, Rachel Getting Married
PLUSSES:
Ingenue factor: young actress played against type; Jonathan Demme has a knack for unconventional female characters; won Broadcast Film Critics Award (tied with Meryl Streep).
MINUSES: It's Kate vs. Meryl year; the film was a box office disappointment.
PROBABILITY: 4/5

ANGELINA JOLIE, Changeling
PLUSSES: Change of pace role for the Girl, Interrupted Best Sup. Actress winner; fact-based story has a chilling, emotional complexity (with happy ending); Clint Eastwood directed Hilary Swank to her second Oscar for Million Dollar Baby in 2005.
MINUSES: It's Kate vs. Meryl year; media backlash (Brangelina) could hurt her chances; prickly personality on and off-screen; mixed reviews for her performance; poor box office performance of the film; won Oscar in 2000.
PROBABILITY: 5/5

MELISSA LEO, Frozen River
PLUSSES: Hard-working character actress overdue for Oscar recognition; excellent reviews for her performance; strong support from Academy members (Clint Eastwood, Sean Penn, Josh Brolin, Whoopi Goldberg) and mainstream press (Roger Ebert); the movie has thematic urgency, given the current political and economic climate; women's groups rallied for her and the movie as well.
MINUSES: It's Kate vs. Meryl year; Frozen River is the lowest grossing nominee in this category.
PROBABILITY: 3/5

MERYL STREEP, Doubt.
PLUSSES: "The greatest living actress of all time" received her record setting 15th acting nod for her role as a crusading nun; reviews wise, this is her best chance for a third Oscar; the movie's fourth acting nominations indicate a strong ensemble cast.
MINUSES: Immense support for six-time nominee Kate Winslet; no major nods (Best Picture, Director) for the film; won two Oscars already ("share the wealth" factor); the movie's detractors faulted her studied, unnatural acting compared to Cherry Jones' Tony Award winning performance on Broadway.
PROBABILITY: 2/5

KATE WINSLET, The Reader
PLUSSES: Winslet is the youngest acting nominee with six nods before the age of 33; consistently engaging performances make her overdue for Oscar recognition; Holocaust themed films are Oscar-bait material.
MINUSES: Fine but not great reviews for her performance; her character is unrepentant and repugnant; detractors consider her Golden Globe winning role in Revolutionary Road more emotionally complex and dramatically resonant; the film is a Weinstein Brothers release; category fraud (won Golden Globe and SAG awards for the role); Meryl Streep is overdue for a third Oscar.
PROBABILITY: 1/5

THE LOWDOWN: Call it a battle of benchmark nominees: Winslet is the youngest acting nominee with six nods, while Streep garnered her 15th acting nod; the 33 year old Brit has enough momentum and support from her co-thespians and the media, hence the Oscar should go to... Kate Winslet.

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