AND FINALLY... BEST PICTURE

THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
PLUSSES: Ambitious big screen adaptation of F. Scott Fitzgerald's short story has attractive and talented leads (Brad Pitt, Cate Blanchett, Tilda Swinton) and impressive technical credits in it; the only $100 million box office grossing Best Picture nominee this year.
MINUSES: The Slumdog fever is unstoppable; destined to win some minor awards, not Best Picture.
PROBABILITY: 3/5

FROST/NIXON
PLUSSES: Well reviewed adaptation of Peter Morgan's Tony Award nominated play gets due points for its strong performances and adroit writing.
MINUSES: The Slumdog fever is unstoppable; disappointing box office; no Nixon movie has won an Oscar before; the performances and writing are its assets, not the film as a whole.
PROBABILITY: 4/5

MILK
PLUSSES: The movie was released at the right time, given the current state of American politics; sentiment for the late California mayor remains in most Academy members; terrific reviews.
MINUSES: The Slumdog fever is unstoppable; anti-gay members and activists are distracting; so-so box office performance
PROBABILITY: 2/5

THE READER
PLUSSES: Holocaust themed pictures are typical Oscar contenders; international cast (Bruno Ganz, Alexandra Maria Lara, David Kross) added to its art-house cred; it's a Weinstein Brothers movie.
MINUSES: It's a Weinstein Brothers movie; the Slumdog fever is unstoppable; mixed reviews; many people say it snagged the slot that is reserved for The Dark Knight.
PROBABILITY: 5/5

SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
PLUSSES: The only film in Oscar history to sweep all guilds' (PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE, ASC, PDGA) and pre-Oscar (Globes, SAG, BAFTA, BFCA) nods, the British film has universal appeal, global scope (India, UK, and US cast and crew), and touching production back story (release delays, budget constraints, mixed reception in India)in it.
MINUSES: None, unless some Academy members become jealous of its countless awards and give the top prize to another movie (which is unlikely).
PROBABILITY: 1/1

THE LOWDOWN: Slumdog Millionaire couldn't have been released at the right time. After three years in contention, Fox Searchlight will have its first Best Picture winner in its hands.