BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
FROZEN RIVER, Written by Courtney Hunt (pictured, right)
- Melissa Leo's widely praised performance was the center of the film and not her debut screenplay.
PROBABILITY: 2/5
HAPPY-GO-LUCKY, Written by Mike Leigh
- The lack of love for four-time nominee Leigh's critically acclaimed film was obvious with Sally Hawkins' surprise snub from the Academy and BAFTA. This is the movie's sole nomination, and its own reward.
PROBABILITY: 4/5
IN BRUGES, Written by Martin McDonagh
- The Belgium-set Irish tragicomedy surprisingly scored a Best Screenplay nod despite its March 2008 release, so its nomination is enough.
PROBABILITY: 5/5
MILK, Written by Dustin Lance Black
- This is Black's first produced screenplay and the category's sole Best Picture nominee. After winning the WGA last month, will Oscar be next? Common sense says he will (and deserves it).
PROBABILITY: 1/5
WALL-E, Screenplay by Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Original story by Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter
- Pixar films are a staple in this category every year, and WALL-E is no exception. This is Stanton's second nomination as a writer, though animated films stand no chance of winning the Best Screenplay award.
PROBABILITY: 3/5
THE LOWDOWN: Milk may repeat its WGA win on March 22, though WALL-E and Frozen River have its ardent supporters.
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