THE BAADER MEINHOF COMPLEX, Germany
- Controversy surrounding the characters in this fact-based post-Holocaust drama is in litigation now, and Germany won the award two years ago.
PROBABILITY: 5/5
THE CLASS, France (pictured)
- This is France's 34th Best Foreign Film nod, and in a year of true-to-life films 2008's Palme d'Or winner has strong appeal with traditional Academy voters.
PROBABILITY: 2/5
DEPARTURES, Japan
- No Japanese film has won the award since its inauguration as a competitive category in 1956.
PROBABILITY: 3/5
REVANCHE, Austria
- Austria won the award last year for The Counterfeiters, a well received film than this love on the run drama.
PROBABILITY: 4/5
WALTZ WITH BASHIR, Israel
- Ari Folman's partly autobiographical debut feature went home empty handed at Cannes last year, but it emerged victorious Stateside (winning numerous awards including the Golden Globe, WGA, and National Society for Film Critics for Best Film). Its cinematic roots (animated docu-drama) may prove too confusing for old fashioned voters.
PROBABILITY: 1/5
THE LOWDOWN: Sony Pictures Classics is busy campaigning for The Class and Bashir, but only one will win. France should find itself a winner though.
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