10th OSCAR-WATCH PREDICTIONS

2009 marks the tenth year of Reel Reviews' Annual Oscar-Watch Predictions Game. Though the grand slam guilds' performance of Slumdog Millionaire make it the "only" sure thing for multiple Oscars (including Best Picture), the primary objective is to assess the probability of a film, performance, or technical aspect/detail to win an Academy Award.

Today, I will discuss the Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress predictions. (These are the two major awards that are announced earlier in the telecast.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

JOSH BROLIN, MILK
PLUSSES: Performance was acclaimed; he is a new Academy member; retribution for being snubbed last year for his career comeback in the four-time winning "No Country for Old Men"
MINUSES: Competition from Heath Ledger; unsympathetic role; "Milk" spotlight focused on Sean Penn and the movie, not on him.
PROBABILITY: 3/5


ROBERT DOWNEY, JR., TROPIC THUNDER
PLUSSES: Career comeback for the 1993 Best Actor nominee and former Hollywood wild child (drug addict); starring in 2008's third highest grossing film "Iron Man" do not hurt either.
MINUSES: Isn't Heath Ledger; Controversial nature of the role was brutally savaged by many critics; the Ben Stiller-directed film was a relative box office disappointment
PROBABILITY: 5/5


PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN, DOUBT.
PLUSSES: Well received performance of a controversial role (played on stage by Tony Award nominee Brian F. O'Byrne)
MINUSES: Isn't Heath Ledger; won Best Actor Oscar for "Capote" three years ago (spread the wealth); the movie was a relative box office and critical disappointment; Meryl Streep and Viola Davis gained more press traction than him
PROBABILITY: 5/5


HEATH LEDGER, THE DARK KNIGHT
PLUSSES: The "killer" role that put his performance on the map; the film was a critical and box office success (second highest grossing movie of all time); 1976 posthumous Best Actor winner Peter Finch ("Network") proved that dead actors can win an Oscar too.
MINUSES: He's dead already, so what is he to gain?
PROBABILITY: 1/5


MICHAEL SHANNON, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
PLUSSES: Hard working character actor was honored for a well received performance
MINUSES: Heath Ledger; the film is a critical and box office disappointment; minimal screen time
PROBABILITY: 2/5


PREDICTION: Heath Ledger's family should prepare a speech just in case his name is called, though Michael Shannon might score a huge upset. Ouch!