RICHARD JENKINS, The Visitor
PLUSSES: After many years of consistently engaging performances in films such as North Country, Absolute Power, and Rumor Has It, Jenkins lands a well deserved nod for his affecting portrayal of a graduate school professor in Thomas McCarthy's The Visitor.
MINUSES: If the low budget film was released last November, he may stand a better chance of winning the pre-cursor awards (Golden Globes, SAG, BAFTA). Plus, it's a Sean Penn vs. Mickey Rourke battle.
PROBABILITY: 5/5
FRANK LANGELLA, Frost/Nixon
PLUSSES: Another character actor nominated this year is longtime Academy member Langella who reprised his Tony Award winning role to the big screen.
MINUSES: The film was tepidly received by critics and audiences. Actors who play the disgraced former president don't win Oscars (Anthony Hopkins in 1995, as an example). It's a Penn vs. Rourke showdown in the end.
PROBABILITY: 3/5
SEAN PENN, Milk
PLUSSES: Penn received some of the best reviews of his acting career for his critically praised portrayal of the late openly gay California mayor Harvey Milk. He won the critics' trifecta (LA, NY, National Society) and SAG awards for his performance.
MINUSES: Conservative (and homophobic) voters (Ernest Borgnine, Tony Curtis, to name a few) are a dominant voice in the Academy. He won the award five years ago for Mystic River (spread the wealth factor). Mickey Rourke's career comeback has found immense support from the Globes and BAFTA.
PROBABILITY: 1/5
BRAD PITT, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
PLUSSES: Fine reviews for his role. The film's 13 nominations isn't a fluke either.
MINUSES: Better chances in the technical categories, nothing else. It's a Penn vs. Rourke showdown come Oscar night.
PROBABILITY: 4/5
MICKEY ROURKE, The Wrestler
PLUSSES: Hollywood's biggest comeback story of 2008 is Mickey Rourke. After a self-inflicted career nosedive and obscurity, he hit the spotlight after 15 years for his well received performance in The Wrestler. He won the Golden Globe and BAFTA awards for the role of a lifetime.
MINUSES: Some Academy members may prefer to "wait and see" if he has changed already. (He has to pay his dues after all these years.) The movie's two nods and miniscule box office aren't impressive either. Sentiment for Sean Penn and the film have greater weight.
PROBABILITY: 2/5
THE LOWDOWN: It's a battle between the former bratpacks. Penn has the right political timing for his role as Harvey Milk, while Rourke's career comeback was one of 2008's entertainment highlights. Performance wise, both were great. Since most Academy members vote with their hearts and not with their minds, Penn has greater impact.
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