OSCAR-WATCH PREDICTIONS: BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON, Screenplay by Eric Roth, Screen story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
- This is Roth's third Oscar nomination, though the film may fare better in the technical categories. The Slumdog train may derail his chances.
PROBABILITY: 2/5

DOUBT, Written by John Patrick Shanley
- Shanley won the Best Original Screenplay Oscar for Moonstruck in 1988 and the Tony Award for Best Play in 2006. The film received mixed critical traction, and its performances were far better received than his writing. Plus, the Slumdog train may derail his chances.
PROBABILITY: 4/5

FROST/NIXON, Screenplay by Peter Morgan
- Just like Shanley, Morgan adapted his Tony winning play for the screen with divisive results. Plus, the Slumdog train may derail his chances.
PROBABILITY: 3/5

THE READER, Screenplay by David Hare
- Hare had a better chance of winning six years ago for The Hours and not for this Weinstein Brothers production. Plus, the Slumdog train may derail his chances.
PROBABILITY: 5/5

SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy (pictured)
- 2008 is Slumdog's year, and the Full Monty (1997) nominee is assured of a ticket to the podium.
PROBABILITY: 1/5

THE LOWDOWN: Beaufoy swept most of the Best Screenplay awards (including the WGA for Adapted Writing) this year, and the Slumdog fever isn't resting on its laurels.