10th OSCAR-WATCH PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Aside from Best Foreign Language Film and Best Original Screenplay, this year's Best Sup. Actress race is unpredictable. Take a look at my predictions and stats:

AMY ADAMS, DOUBT
PLUSSES: Fine performance in an ensemble film; previously nominated for 2005's Junebug (same category); newly minted Academy member has a good reputation in Hollywood for her vivacity, graciousness, and talent.
MINUSES: Viola Davis' performance was more lauded than hers; lacked "big emotional" scene to put her on top
PROBABILITY: 4/5


PENELOPE CRUZ, VICKY CHRISTINA BARCELONA
PLUSSES: Critically acclaimed performance that won her a BAFTA two weeks ago over Viola Davis and Amy Adams; actresses in Woody Allen films are an Oscar favorite
MINUSES: The "killer" role; the movie was surprisingly snubbed by the Academy in other categories
PROBABILITY: 3/5


VIOLA DAVIS, DOUBT.
PLUSSES: In a year wherein hard working character actors and actresses are honored, hers stole the spotlight; being praised by the "greatest living actress of all time" Meryl Streep last month at the Screen Actors Guild Awards is a big deal of class and traction for her widely praised performance.
MINUSES: Internal competition from Cruz and Henson
PROBABILITY: 1/5


TARAJI P. HENSON, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
PLUSSES: Well received performance in the biggest nominated film of the year
MINUSES: Davis packed more emotional punch and media attention, while Cruz has the powerful Weinstein Brothers behind her; Button has better chances in technical categories
PROBABILITY: 2/5


MARISA TOMEI, THE WRESTLER
PLUSSES: The category's only previous winner (1992's My Cousin Vinny) received some of the best reviews of her career for her performance in the movie; holding her own against Best Actor nominee and 2008's comeback story Mickey Rourke isn't much of a stretch either.
MINUSES: Won an Oscar before (spread the wealth); Rourke stole the spotlight from her; internal competition.
PROBABILITY: 5/5


PREDICTIONS: It's a three-way race: Davis has the actors' branch to back her up, while Cruz has the Weinstein Brothers and critics to support her, and Henson as the long-shot.