DAVID FINCHER, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
PLUSSES: Contemporary auteur overdue for Oscar recognition; consistently daring and well lensed projects (Zodiac, Fight Club; Panic Room; Seven) with artistic and mainstream appeal
MINUSES: Isn't Danny Boyle; will win in the future
PROBABILITY: 2/5
RON HOWARD, Frost/Nixon
PLUSSES: The former Happy Days star and Beautiful Mind auteur tackles a historical event in American politics and media; the film's thematic urgency is an asset.
MINUSES: Isn't Danny Boyle; Movies about former U.S. President Richard Nixon have never received an Oscar; the film is an achievement in acting and writing, not directing; won Best Director nine years ago.
PROBABILITY: 5/5
GUS VAN SANT, Milk
PLUSSES: The Good Will Hunting helmer has tackled a politically urgent film that wowed critics (if not audiences); established cred and appeal with other filmmakers and art-house literati; the only openly-gay director to be nominated by the Academy twice
MINUSES: Isn't Danny Boyle; uncompromising vision and choice of projects.
PROBABILITY: 3/5
STEPHEN DALDRY, The Reader
PLUSSES: Received his third Best Director nod for his third film; much publicized struggles while making the film are an asset.
MINUSES: Isn't Danny Boyle; the movie has many vocal detractors.
PROBABILITY: 5/5
DANNY BOYLE, Slumdog Millionaire
PLUSSES: After many years of unconventional and art-house films (Shallow Grave; Trainspotting; The Beach; 28 Days), the 53 year old Brit has helmed a touching love story with universal appeal; his DGA win sealed his Oscar chances.
MINUSES: Envy factor (though small); has no projects lined up in the future.
LOWDOWN: It's Danny Boyle, hands-down. No contest.
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